Khi 'Van Xa Ap Luc' Tro Thanh Cong Cu Hai Luoi: Bai Hoc Tu Ky Luc Xuat Khau 125 Ty USD Cua Trung Quoc

Thang 6/2024, Trung Quoc ghi nhan thang du thuong mai 125.6 ty USD, con so ky luc. Day khong phai tin hieu suc manh. Day la bien bao. Mot nen kinh te co trong luot xuat khau khoi dien tu va dien mat troi, nhung ban le chi tang 2.1%. 'Van xa ap luc' - thuat ngu ma chinh gioi phan tich Trung Quoc dung de chi viec xuat khau du thua giup giai toa ap luc noi dia. Nhung van xa ay dang gay ra mot ap luc khac: thue quan tra du, va su phan ung tu cac doi tac thuong mai. Trong kinh te truyen thong, thang du lon la thanh cong. Trong blockchain, diem tuong tu xay ra khi TVL cua mot giao thuc tang dot bien nhung hoat dong noi bo lai giam. EX: mot L2 co TVL 5 ty USD tu nhung dong token farm, nhung so luong giao dich thuc te chi bang mot nua so voi L2 cung cap. Do la canh bao su mat can doi. Lich su blockchain cho thay, cac cuoc khung hoang thuong bat dau tu nhung mat can doi nhu vay. Nho lai dot Luna Foundation Guard ban Bitcoin de giu UST neo gia, hay dot cac du an DeFi tang APY dot ngot de thu hut TVL. Deu bat nguon tu noi luc va ngoai luc mat can bang. Nhung du an do thuong bi 'regulatory arbitrage' - tan dung su chenh lech phap ly giua cac khu vuc de ton tai. Nhung cuoi cung, thiet ke khong ben vung se bi loai bo. Trung Quoc dang o trong mot kich ban tuong tu. Noi dia (noi bo) ho tro thieu. Xuat khau (nguon goc ben ngoai) la ngon lua duy nhat. Nhung ngon lua ay dang dot chay cac gioi han thuong mai. Van de chinh cua Trung Quoc khong phai la nang luc san xuat, ma la 'cau chuyen' ve niem tin noi dia. Nguoi dan khong mua nha, khong tieu dung. Cac doanh nghiep tu nhan giam dau tu. 'Damage cua chinh sach' o day la: chinh phu da qua tap trung vao san xuat, bo qua nhu cau. Y chang nhieu du an crypto chi chu y xay dung 'supply side' (tinh nang, san pham) ma quen mat 'demand side' (tai sao nguoi dung can no, cau chuyen gi de ho muon su dung). Co mot goc nhin trai chieu dang duoc ban luan: 'Thang du thuong mai cang lon, cang phan anh su yeu kem cua Trung Quoc'. Dieu nay di nguoc lai voi kien thuc thong thuong. Nhung no dung. Mot nen kinh te 'khoe' la nen kinh te ma xuat khau chi la phan thuong, khong phai la phao cuu sinh. Trong crypto, mot giao thuc 'khoe' la giao thuc co dong doanh thu tu nhieu nguon on dinh, khong chi tu phan thuong farm token. Su phu thuoc qua lon vao mot nguon thu la tu tu than. Tro lai voi bai hoc tu Loom Network nam 2017: Toi da dau tu som vao ICO cua ho vi toi thay mot cau chuyen ben vung, du sidechain cua ho chua hoan hao. Nhung thang 6/2024, khi toi quan sat LHV Bank tich hop blockchain, toi hieu ra: mot giao thuc that su manh me la giao thuc co the tao ra gia tri noi tai, khong can den 'van xa ap luc' xuat khau. Tin hieu can quan sat bay gio la gi? 1. Thuong mai: xuat khau Trung Quoc co tiep tuc tang? 2. Noi dia: ban le co tang len? 3. Chinh sach: chinh phu co chuyen huong ho tro nguoi tieu dung thay vi san xuat? Neu xuat khau giam ma noi dia chua hoi phuc, do se la tin hieu nguy hiem cho toan bo thi truong, khong rieng gi crypto. Hay theo doi nhung can bang.