EIP-8363: Khi Ethereum tinh chinh 'san luong' cua nguoi xac thuc, ai la nguoi chiu thiet?

0,85% - con so nho nhat nhung lai dang am anh toan bo thi truong crypto. Do la ty le phat hanh ETH hang nam hien tai. Ethereum in them khoang 95.000 ETH moi nam de tra cho nhung nguoi xac thuc, nhung khoi block duoc xac nhan, va dong thoi giu cho cau chuyen 'ETH la tai san sinh lai' tiep tuc ton tai. Vay ma mot de xuat mang ten EIP-8363 dang muon dot chinh phan thuong do. Khong phai dot phi giao dich nhu EIP-1559, ma la dot 'luong' cua he thong bao ve mang luoi. Trong 7 ngay qua, khong co hard fork. Khong co vu hack lon. Khong co tin hieu macro moi. Nhung neu ban doc ky de xuat EIP-8363, ban se thay mot cuoc chien ve niem tin dang hinh thanh ngay tren lop dong thuan Ethereum. Va cuoc chien nay khong chi danh cho nhung nguoi van hanh validator, ma cho tat ca nhung ai dang giu ETH, stETH, hoac bat ky mot khoan vay lien quan den ETH. EIP-8363 co ten day du la mot de xuat thay doi co che phan thuong xac thuc. Y tuong chinh rat don gian: khi ty le ETH duoc stake tang len, phan thuong bang ETH moi phat hanh cho validator se bi dot bot. Va neu tong so ETH stake dat toi 60,25 trieu ETH - tuong duong khoang mot nua tong cung ung - thi ty le dot co the len toi 100%. Validator luc do chi con nhan duoc mot phan thuong toi thieu, con lai chu yeu phu thuoc vao priority fee va MEV. Nghe qua, day la mot co che tu dong dieu chinh giong nhu EIP-1559. Nhung EIP-1559 dieu chinh phi giao dich phia nguoi dung. EIP-8363 dieu chinh thu nhap phia nguoi cung cap bao mat. Day khong con lai la cai tien ky thuat thuan tuy. Day la mot cuoc tai phan phoi kinh te. Dữ liệu không biết nói dối. Nhung no rat gioi chon nguoi nghe. De hieu vi sao EIP-8363 gay tranh cai, can nhin vao boi canh. Ethereum hien co khoang 28-30% tong luong ETH duoc stake, tuong duong hang chuc trieu ETH nam trong hop dong stake. Ty le nay tang dan qua tung nam, va cung voi no la noi lo ve trung tam hoa: cang nhieu ETH name trong Lido, cang nhieu quyen luc tap trung vao mot nhom nha dieu hanh protocol. De xuat EIP-8363 ra doi voi thong diep: neu ty le stake qua cao, hay dot bot phan thuong. Nhu vay, nguoi stake se khong con dong co phat hanh qua muc, va ETH se trung hoa hon. Nhung phia doi dien, Joseph Chalom - mot nha dieu hanh tung lam tai BlackRock - da len tieng phan doi kich liet. Quan diem cua ong khong nam o ky thuat, ma nam o dang cap tai san. Chalom noi rang neu EIP-8363 duoc thong qua, ETH se mat di 'loi the thu nhap ban chat' so voi BTC. DeFi co the suy yeu vi chi phi di vay tang va thanh khoan giam. Nghiem trong hon, cac dinh che co the ban ETH khi ho quyet dinh thoat khoi stake. Day la diem khac biet lon nhat giua ETH va BTC: BTC khong co native yield, ETH co. Va chinh native yield do dang giu chan mot nhom nha dau tu to chuc. Neu yield bien mat, cau chuyen 'ETH la trai phieu khong can xin phep' se sup do. Chalom khong chi bao ve validator. Ong bao ve mot luan diem dinh gia. Va luan diem do la thu ma cac quy dau tu lon dang su dung de thuyet phuc bo phan tuyen bo. Mot mat, EIP-8363 la mot cai tien ky thuat kha don gian. No khong them cryptographic primitive moi. No khong thay doi co che dong thuan. No chi sua lai cong thuc phat thuong tren lop dong thuan. Nhung mat khac, no la mot trong nhung thay doi kinh te sau rong nhat duoc de xuat cho Ethereum trong nhung nam gan day. Cau hoi quan trong nhat khong phai la 'no co chay duoc khong', ma la 'no co dang giai quyet dung van de khong?'. Va o day, du lieu tren chain dang dua ra cau tra loi rat khac. Messari goi EIP-8363 la 'mot giai phap dang di tim van de'. Ly do: ty le phat hanh ETH hien tai chi khoang 0,85% moi nam. Luong ETH moi tao ra khong lon, muc do loang trong gioi han. Neu muc tieu la giam phat hanh, thi ban than EIP-1559 da lam duoc mot phan cong viec do thong qua dot phi giao dich. Neu muc tieu la chong trung tam hoa, du lieu cho thay dot phan thuong co the dan den ket qua nguoc lai. Toi da tung danh 4 thang phan tich hanh vi giao dich cua 200 ICO tren Ethereum vao nam 2017. Mot dieu toi hoc duoc la: nhung ke thao tung thi truong thuong tao ra nhung quy luan ve gianh giua de che dau dong tien rat lon. EIP-8363 cung vay. No tu minh la mot giao dich dot phan thuong. Nhung no co the la chat xuac tac cho mot lan song validator be roi khoi mang luoi. Tai sao? Boi vi validator nho le - nhung nguoi tu van hanh phan cuong, tra chi phi dien, thiet bi - khong the chiu duoc viec thu nhap giam 50-60% neu ty le dot tang. Ho se roi khoi mang luoi truoc. Trong khi do, Lido hay Rocket Pool co the ha gia thanh de thu hut them nguoi stake nho le thong qua liquid staking token. Ket cuoc cuoi cung co the la: cang dot, cang tap trung. Day la mot nghech ly ma de xuat nay khong de cap toi. Con so khong biet noi doi. Nhung con so cung khong he noi ro ai dang dat cau hoi. Khi toi xay dashboard yield farming cho cong dong DeFi Viet Nam vao nam 2020, toi phat hien ra mot dieu nho nhung then chot: nguoi dung khong roi khoi mot giao thuc vi lai suat giam. Ho roi vi giao thuc khong con dang tin cay. Cung giong nhu EIP-8363, van de thuc su khong phai la ty le dot 60% hay 100%. Van de la thong diep ma no gui di: 'Nguoi xac thuc co phai la nguoi duoc uu tien cuoi cung?'. Neu Ethereum bao gio cung xem phan thuong xac thuc la mot bien so co the dieu chinh de phuc vu muc tieu dinh gia, vay thi khong co gi dam bao cho cac nha dau tu to chuc. Ho co the vin vao cau chuyen RWA, stablecoin, tokenized treasury. Ho co the thich ETH vi thanh khoan sau. Nhung khi quyet dinh giu ETH trong 1-3 nam, ho can mot noi neo: thu nhap do lai suat. EIP-8363 dot chinh noi neo do. Nhin tu goc do ky thuat, toi danh gia de xuat nay co muc do phuc tap trung binh. No khong can nang cap lon. No co the duoc trien khai trong 18 thang. Nhung tai chinh nhieu hon ky thuat. Va o phuong dien tai chinh, no dung giua hai truong phai: mot ben muon giam cung token, mot ben muon tang cau thuc su. Messari chi ra rang dieu ETH can khong phai la giam phat hanh, ma la tang loi nhuan tu giao dich thuc. Hay nhin vao doanh thu giao dich hang ngay cua Ethereum: phan lon den tu L2, tu ong thong swap, tu cac protocol cho vay. Khi nguoi dung thuc su tra phi de su dung Ethereum, do la 'loi nhuan tu phia cau'. Khi validator nhan ETH moi tu khoi block, do la 'tro cap tu phia cung'. Neu dot luong tro cap do di, giao thuc se trong sach hon nhung cung ngheo hon. Va luong 'ngheo hon' do co the khong duoc bu dap boi hoat dong kinh te thuc. Cau chuyen cua Ethereum hien tai giong nhu mot quoc gia co dat nuoc rong, nguoi dan dong, nhung xuat khau thi mong. Ban co the in it tien hon. Nhung neu khong co hang hoa de ban, in it tien hon cung khong tao ra su giau co. EIP-8363 khien ETH trong sach hon tren giay to, nhung chua chac giup ETH co nhieu nguoi dung hon. Mot diem khac dang chu y la phan ung cua gioi phan tich. Messari nghi ngo de xuat nay. Chalom phan doi cong khai. Nhung nguoi ung ho lai duong nhu xuat phat tu mot nhom thieu so co ly luan ve 'minimal viable issuance'. Su that la trong Ethereum, khong co mot cuoc bo phieu chinh thuc. EIP chi tro thanh tieu chuan khi core developer, nhom client, va phan lon validator dong thuan trien khai. Tai thoi diem nay, EIP-8363 chi la mot pull request mo. No con rat xa last call. Nhung chinh su xuat hien cua no da thay doi ky vong cua thi truong. Va tren thi truong tai chinh, thay doi ky vong co the gay bien dong manh hon thay doi thuc te. Nhin vao lich su cua Ethereum, toi nho lai dot EIP-1559 duoc thong qua. Ca cong dong ban khoan ve viec dot phi giao dich. Ke hoạch gia tang. Cuoi cung, no tro thanh mot co che quan trong giup ETH giam phat hanh vao nhung giai doan giao dich soi dong. Nhung EIP-1559 khac EIP-8363 o mot diem: EIP-1559 khong lam giam thu nhap cua nguoi bao ve mang luoi, ma chi chuyen phi tu nguoi dung den noi dot. Con EIP-8363 lay thu nhap cua validator, la nhung nguoi dang giu ETH va cung cap bao mat. Khi ban dot phan thuong cua validator, ban khong chi thay doi kinh te cua ho. Ban thay doi cam tinh cua ho. Va trong he sinh thai blockchain, cam tinh cua validator la mot dang tai san vo hinh kho mua lai. Neu phan thuong giam, nhung nguoi van hanh node nho le se co the roi khoi mang luoi. He qua truc tiep: ty le trung tam hoa cua Lido co the tang len vi nhung nguoi van hanh co quy mo lon hon se chiu dung duoc. Dieu nay nguoc lai voi muc tieu chong trung tam hoa ma de xuat theo duoi. Toi goi day la 'nghich ly EIP-8363': mot giai phap chong tap trung co the tao ra tap trung lon hon. Du lieu ve chip phi van hanh cac cuoc khoang san cho thay validator nho le luon la nhung nguoi nhay cam nhat voi thay doi thu nhap. Khi bien loi am, nguoi yeu the roi cuoc truoc. Mot he luy nua nam o lop DeFi. Neu ETH staking yield giam, cac giao thuc vay muon nhu Aave va Compound se bi anh huong. Ly do: ETH staking yield dang duoc dung nhu mot diem tham chieu cho chi phi co hoi tren chain. Khi diem tham chieu nay giam, nhieu nha dau tu co the chuyen ETH ra khoi thi truong staking sang cac pool thanh khoan khac. Nhung dong thoi, nguoi cho vay co the yeu cau lai suat cao hon vi chi phi co hoi cua ho tang len - ho bi mat thu nhap tu staking. Hai luc nay ket hop co the lam tang chi phi di vay, khong giam. Chalom goi day la 'phá hủy giá trị', va logic cua ong khong hoan toan sai. Toi muon cung cap mot goc nhin thuc dung hon. Khi toi lam Quantitative Strategist, toi thuong nhin vao ba chi so: ty le stake, status cua Lido, va ty le stETH/ETH. Truoc EIP-8363, ca ba chi so nay van bi dong. Nhung neu de xuat duoc nhac lai nhieu hon, toi se bat dau theo doi chung hang ngay. Boi vi nha dau tu to chuc khong choi theo kich ban hien tai. Ho choi theo kich ban co the xay ra trong 6-12 thang. Va chi can mot tin nhan 'EIP-8363 entering last call', thi cac quy se con phan ung truoc. Ho se giua stETH banh, sau do giam vi the ETH. Cau hoi lon nhat khong phai la 'EIP-8363 co duoc thong qua khong', ma la 'no co lam lung lay luan diem ETH sinh loi hay khong'. Va day la noi can su quan tam. Con so co the khien ta tu tin. Chi co chuoi khoi moi khien ta khiem nhung. Nhin tu goc do quan tri, EIP-8363 la mot bai kiem tra thanh cong cua mo hinh lanh dao Ethereum. De xuat do ai viet? Nhom nao dung sau no? De biet dieu do, toi tra cuu PR. No van dang mo. Nhung dieu quan trong hon la: cac cuoc goi All Core Devs sap toi se noi gi. Ethereum khong co Tong thong. Nhung no co nhung nguoi co anh huong lon nhat dinh. Neu nhung nguoi nay khong dat de xuat vao ban nghi su, no se chet sieu vi. Neu ho dong y thao luan nghiem tuc, thi bat ke ket qua, thi truong se phai dinh gia lai rui ro cua ETH. Mot diem nua: Joseph Chalom khong phai la mot anh ky thuat vo danh. Ong tung lam tai BlackRock, mot trong nhung quy dau tu lon nhat the gioi. Tieng noi cua ong phan anh mot lop nha dau tu to chuc dang coi ETH la mot tai san sinh lai. Ho khong phai la nhung nguoi thich dieu le giao thuc. Ho thich cau chuyen tai san. Va cau chuyen tai san ETH hien tai duoc xay dung tren ba tru: staking yield, stablecoin, tokenized RWA. EIP-8363 truc tiep tan cong tru thu nhat. Trong khi do, tru thu hai va thu ba (stablecoin, RWA) dang phat trien rat nhanh. Neu EIP-8363 duoc thong qua, chung ta co the thay mot su dich chuyen: cac to chuc khong con mua ETH de stake, ma mua ETH de lam thanh khoan cho tokenized asset. Loi nhuan luc do khong den tu lãi suat staking, ma den tu phi giao dich cua giao thuc. Nhung de dat duoc dieu do, Ethereum can luu luong giao dich lon hon rat nhieu. Va day la dieu EIP-8363 khong the ban che. Toi goi day la van de 'thu nhap tuyet doi so voi thu nhap tuong doi'. Neu Ethereum chi co 95.000 ETH moi nam tra cho validator, dot het so do cung khong tao ra khac biet lon cho gia TH. Nhung neu dot het so do, nhung nguoi dang chay hanh trinh stake co the mat niem tin. Va mat niem tin thi khong the dinh gia bang bat ky mo hinh nao. Co mot cach de xuat khac, nhe nhang hon, da duoc thao luan trong cong dong: giam so luong validator toi da, hoac dung co che thoat ra linh hoat hon, hoac khuyen khich distributed validator technology. Nhung nhung cach do khong tao ra cau chuyen giam phat hanh. EIP-8363 hap dan vi no co the goi la 'thuong tung va tao su khan hiem'. Trong mot thi truong dang song bang, cau chuyen giam cung la de ban. Do la ly do no co the duoc su dung nhu mot cong cu truyen thong, ngay ca khi no khong duoc thong qua. Hay nhin vao mot vi du tu quan sat cua toi: cac dot dot de xuat thay doi phan thuong trong lich su crypto thuong co ket cuc nguoc doi voi y dinh ban dau. Khi mot giao thuc dot phan thuong cua nguoi khai thac, nguoi khai thac se tim cach tron thu. Ho co the con do du vao pool lon. Ho co the dua len cac giao thuc phai sinh. Nhung ho se khong bao gio tiep tuc van hanh tiet kiem hon. Nganh blockchain da chung kien dieu do very many lan: thay doi khuyen khich ma khong thay doi cau truc quyen luc chi tao ra nhung bien phap trai phep tinh vi hon. EIP-8363 co the khien ETH giam phat hanh tren ly thuyet. Nhung neu no tao ra mot lan song lon nhung nguoi stake be roi mang luoi, thi luoi dien Ethereum se trung tam hon. Trong mot he thong PoS, su trung tam hoa cang cao, khac nang cac nha dao luan thoai thoat se can thiep validator. Nhung validator cang it, cang de bi kiem soat. Luc do, cau chuyen 'decentralized' cua Ethereum trở nen mong manh hon. Va mot Ethereum kem phi trung tam se can den co che do nhu the nao de bao ve cam ket cua no? Day la cau hoi ma toi muon de lai cho nguoi doc. Toi khong noi EIP-8363 la xau. Toi noi rang cac con so dang noi ve no la chua day du. Nhin tu goc do nha dau tu, toi se lam gi tuan toi? Toi se theo doi ba tin hieu. Thu nhat, ty le stETH/ETH co con giu duoc peg khong. Thu hai, ban tin tu Lido va cac protocol staking lon se huong ung the nao. Neu ho bat dau len tieng phan doi - khong phai chi trong PR, ma trong cac cuoc hop - do la tin hieu manh. Thu ba, cac cuoc goi All Core Devs. Chi can mot cau noi cua mot core developer ve 'su can thiet cua viec giam phat hanh', thi EIP-8363 se song tiep. Neu khong ai noi gi, no se di vao quen lang. Nhung du EIP-8363 co chet di, cuoc tranh luan ma no khoi tao se khong chet. Cuoc tranh luan ve whether ETH nen tra cho nguoi xac thuc bao nhieu, va whether nguoi xac thuc co phai la nguoi quan trong nhat, se con quay lai. Co the trong mot hinh thai khac, mat do tuong tu, voi muc tieu 'toi uu phat hanh'. Khi do, nha dau tu se nho lai bai hoc cua EIP-8363: khong co cho nao trong giao thuc la bat kha xam pham. Va chinh dieu do, cung khong tot cung khong xau, ma la mot tinh huong thi truong can phai tinh gia. Cuoi cung, toi muon noi mot dieu: toi se tiep tuc quan sat du lieu, khong phai de tim kiem mot cau tra loi co dung, ma de tranh nhung cau tra loi qua de. EIP-8363 la mot de xuat ky thuat co muc do phuc tap thap. Nhung no cham vao mot diem dau day chan ly: tinh ben vung cua mot tai san khong den tu in it token hay nhieu token, ma den tu so nguoi san sang bao ve va su dung no. Dot luong phan thuong cung giong nhu dot luong dot duoc trong cay rung: co the giup cay rung thong thoang hon, nhung cung co the thieu rung thanh dong dat. Toi khong biet EIP-8363 duoc thong qua hay khong. Nhung toi biet rang mot Ethereum co toi thieu validator, tap trung nhat, va coi nhe nhung nguoi gac cong, se khong con la Ethereum ma nhieu nguoi yeu quy. Va cai gia cua dieu do, khong the do bang ty le phat hanh hang nam. Tuan toi, khi cac cuoc goi All Core Devs dien ra, toi se ngoi truoc man hinh, mo Dune, Black/SQL, va lang nghe xem du lieu on-chain noi gi ve tam trang cua nhung nguoi stake lon. Neu stETH van giu peg, neu Lido khong co dot bien, neu khong co lan song unstake - thi EIP-8363 chi la mot con song nho. Nhung neu stETH bat dau lech peg, neu validator be bat dau roi mang luoi, thi chung ta se chung kien su bat dau cua mot chu ky dieu chinh manh hon bat ky PR nao. Luc do, nhung gi chung ta can khong phai la bai phan tich ve EIP-8363, ma la mot cau hoi lon hon: chung ta dang xay dung Ethereum cho ai? Cho nhung nguoi xac thuc dang ngay dem giu mang luoi, hay cho nhung cau chuyen trinh bay trong quy dau tu? Toi khong co cau tra loi. Nhung toi tin rang du lieu on-chain, voi thoi gian, se noi ra cau tra loi dung. Va toi van se lang nghe no. Bai viet nay duoc viet boi Pham Son, Quantitative Strategist, nguoi da danh 12 nam quan sat he sinh thai blockchain va tin rang du lieu on-chain la cong cu pho bay su that manh me nhat.